Methodology
How we value a mug.
This page explains, in plain terms, how Tikinomics turns raw sale data into the valuations and indices you see across the site. Our backend systems implement these calculations; the descriptions here are intended to be transparent rather than exhaustive.
1. Where the data comes from
We aggregate completed-sale records from public marketplaces, auctions, and hobby communities. Each record ideally captures the mug, the realized price, the date, the venue, and the stated condition. Listings that never sold are not treated as sales, though they can inform supply.
2. Cleaning and matching
Raw records are noisy. We de-duplicate, remove obvious outliers and non-arm's-length transactions, and match each sale to a specific mug in our catalog — accounting for reissues and variants, which can carry very different values from an original run.
3. The point estimate
For each mug we estimate a current fair-market value from its recent sales, weighting more recent and better-matched transactions more heavily and adjusting for condition. Thinly traded mugs lean on comparable pieces within the same maker, era, and category.
4. The confidence range
Every valuation includes a range, not just a number. A mug that sells often and consistently gets a tight range; a rare piece with scattered prices gets a wide one. The range communicates how much weight to place on the point estimate — it is a measure of our uncertainty, not a predicted high and low sale price.
5. The Tiki Value Index (TVI)
The TVI aggregates individual mug valuations into a single, value-weighted benchmark rebased to a reference date, so its level is comparable over time. We also publish sub-indices for categories such as Skulls, Limited Drops, and Vintage pieces — the tiki equivalent of sector indices.
6. What this is — and isn't
Tikinomics valuations are statistical estimates for informational purposes. They are not professional appraisals, insurance valuations, or guarantees that a mug will sell at the stated figure. Actual sale prices depend on condition, timing, venue, and buyer demand. For high-value pieces or insurance and legal purposes, consult a qualified appraiser.